Brazil's presidential race is headed to an October 25 runoff after neither President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva nor Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro secured a majority in Sunday's first-round vote, the country's electoral court said.
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Brazil's presidential election will be decided in a second round after neither incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva nor Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro crossed the 50% threshold needed to win outright, according to results released by the country's electoral court in Brasilia.
With 99.8% of the vote reported, the court had Bolsonaro with just over 56 million votes and Lula with 53.7 million. Neither figure was enough to avoid a runoff, which is now scheduled for October 25.
The result sets up a polarized rematch of sorts three weeks from now, with the winner set to lead Latin America's largest economy and its population of 214 million. The next presidential term begins January 5.
A race that defied early expectations
Lula, 80, is seeking an unprecedented fourth non-consecutive term. He went into Sunday's vote hoping to finish the contest in a single round, and he acknowledged afterward that the outcome caught him off guard.
"The result was unexpected," Lula said, according to the Associated Press. "Tomorrow we start a new campaign. I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan."
His opponent, 45-year-old Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, is the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who narrowly lost to Lula in 2022 and was later convicted for plotting a coup to overturn that result. The younger Bolsonaro addressed the press and a small group of supporters outside his Brasilia home, some wearing green and yellow Brazil jerseys and one woman wrapped in the Israeli flag.
"Brazil wants change, that's the reading of what happened today," Bolsonaro said. "It's the end of the Workers' Party era," he added, referring to Lula's party.
What's at stake for the U.S. and China
The runoff carries implications beyond Brazil's borders. Bolsonaro has portrayed U.S. President Donald Trump as an ally and is expected to strengthen ties with Washington if elected. Lula has accused the Trump administration of using tariffs and other means to interfere in Brazilian affairs.
A Bolsonaro victory would increase U.S. influence in Latin America, while a Lula win would likely keep Brazil at a distance from Washington and continue its deepening relationship with China. Bolsonaro has also insisted Brazil needs to strike better deals with the Trump administration, including in the rare minerals economy, which is second only to China's.
Three weeks to win over moderates
Both candidates now have roughly three weeks to court moderate voters who did not back them in the first round. Writer Augusto Cury finished third with 3.4 million votes and has said he will not endorse either candidate in the runoff. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, two candidates who together garnered about 5.3 million votes Sunday, have previously said the same.
Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said the night was a success for Bolsonaro but that nothing is settled. She suggested Lula should "look at the votes for Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado and try to reduce abstention."
Lula is expected to try to capitalize on the popularity of his social policies and on his rival's legal troubles. While the once widely popular president saw his approval ratings drop during his third term, standing up to the U.S. gave him a boost, and he retains a strong base of supporters who credit his social programs with improving millions of Brazilians' lives.
He nevertheless faces an uphill fight because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same justice who led the investigation into Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro, for his part, will likely lean into messaging on affordability and link the president to corruption scandals. He has promised to crack down on Brazilian criminal groups and has campaigned on releasing his father and bringing him back into politics.
Both candidates carry image problems. Roughly half of Brazil's population disapproves of the Bolsonaro family, and roughly half disapproves of Lula's Workers' Party, according to multiple polls.
Four years ago, Lula beat then-incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by about 2.1 million votes.
Voters react as results come in
In Rio de Janeiro, reactions to the first-round outcome reflected the country's deep divisions.
Alvaro Senra, a 65-year-old history professor and Lula supporter, watched the count with friends at a bar and said he felt "calm but very sad."
"I think this is the result of conservatives working under the radar, including by neo-Pentecostal churches. But I think Lula can still win," he said.
Earlier in the day, Maria Ribeiro, a 50-year-old cellphone vendor from Brasilia, said she voted for Bolsonaro's eldest son because she wants the freedom to express her evangelical religion. She hopes he follows in his father's footsteps.
"I voted for his father, and I don't regret it," she said.
Lorena Zschaber, a 40-year-old photographer who watched the results at an LGBTQ+-friendly bar in downtown Rio, said the proximity to his father worried her. During Jair Bolsonaro's presidency, "people felt more at ease to discriminate," she said.
"I'm an LGBTQ+ woman, I can't think of anything worse happening than Flávio Bolsonaro being elected," she added.
Rosângela Resende da Rocha, a 69-year-old former stay-at-home mom, said she backed Lula's social policies that help the "less fortunate" and his willingness to stand up to Trump.
"That crazy guy wants to come in here to buy our country, so that our country will be like it is over there," she said at a voting center in Brasilia. "He won't succeed if Lula wins."
Confidence in the voting system
No significant fraud has ever been detected since Brazil adopted its electronic voting system in the 1990s. The Organization of American States' electoral observation mission reported Sunday that "the voting has been going smoothly and under adequate safety conditions," and electoral authorities assured that electronic votes are secure and verifiable.
Voters appeared largely confident the system could not be tampered with. Josemar Lauriano Pereira, a 46-year-old lawyer in Rio de Janeiro, said the rapid availability of results helped combat fraud and uncertainty.
"When results take a lot of time, it creates an opening for people to cast doubt on the results, to say there's been a problem," he said.
The runoff is set for October 25, when Brazilians will choose between the incumbent and a return to the Bolsonaro family's brand of right-wing politics.