Brazil's presidential race heads to a polarized finish as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro close their campaigns with dueling rallies and confident predictions, while polls point to a likely runoff.
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| Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, running for re-election, holds flags during a closing campaign rally in São Paulo on Saturday, one day before Brazil's first-round presidential vote. |
SÃO PAULO — Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro closed out their first-round campaigns on Saturday, each telling supporters they expect to win Sunday's election outright even as recent polling suggests neither may cross the threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
The two candidates spent the final day of campaigning in sharply different settings. Lula, 80, marched through São Paulo with what his campaign described as a record crowd for a closing rally, while Bolsonaro, 45, rode a motorcycle caravan through Santa Bárbara d'Oeste and Americana in São Paulo state before rallying later in Rio de Janeiro.
Organizers said roughly 150,000 supporters filled a two-kilometer stretch of Augusta Street between Paulista Avenue and Roosevelt Square, a traditional stage for political demonstrations in Brazil's largest city. The head of Lula's Workers' Party, Edinho Silva, said the turnout reflected growing momentum for the incumbent.
"Unlike other Latin American countries, where we saw a right-wing wave at the end, here in Brazil we're seeing a wave in our favor," Silva said.
A choice framed as democracy versus barbarism
Speaking from a campaign vehicle, Lula called Sunday's vote a choice between "democracy and barbarism" and promised to defeat the far right. He has also framed the election as a test of Brazil's sovereignty, warning against foreign meddling — a message aimed at Washington after the Trump administration imposed high tariffs on Brazilian exports, revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador in Washington and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice who chaired the probe that led to the sentencing of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Lula told supporters, "Tomorrow, we're going to win the elections in the first round," according to remarks reported from the rally.
Bolsonaro struck a similarly confident tone. "I am convinced that everything is in place for us to win this election in the first round," he said. At his rally, he was photographed holding a placard bearing the image of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest after being convicted of attempting to overturn the 2022 election result.
What the polls show
Surveys released on Saturday suggested Lula remained ahead but that his lead was narrowing, with neither candidate likely to win outright on Sunday. Under Brazilian law, if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes — which exclude blank and null ballots — the two frontrunners advance to a second-round runoff on October 25.
Polls suggest that runoff would also be close. The race is far tighter than Lula's last victory in 2022, when he beat the elder Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points, a margin of roughly 2.1 million votes.
Trump's shadow and the foreign influence debate
Flávio Bolsonaro has leaned into his ideological alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has not formally endorsed him but has said he is watching the election "very closely." Bolsonaro has touted his proximity to the White House and argued Brazil needs to strike better deals with the Trump administration, including on rare minerals. Brazil estimates its deposits hold up to 21 million tons, second only to China.
He denies that he is being helped by the U.S. government. "That narrative won't stick, sorry," he said at a September campaign event.
Lula's supporters have seized on American interest as evidence Washington is trying to meddle in the election, while some Bolsonaro supporters, frustrated by the cost of living, say they would welcome U.S. pressure if it helped force change at home.
Scrutiny on both campaigns
The Bolsonaro campaign has faced scrutiny over a film-funding scandal. Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation over financing for "Dark Horse," a biopic about his father that was bankrolled by a jailed banker tied to one of Brazil's biggest financial scandals. Brazil's Supreme Court authorized federal police in April to investigate whether Flavio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula.
Bolsonaro has pledged to seek his father's release from prison if elected and has echoed his father's unsubstantiated claims questioning the reliability of Brazil's electronic voting system — claims that analysts say could be laying the groundwork to contest the result if he loses.
Lula, meanwhile, faces a tough battle amid an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same justice who led the investigation into the elder Bolsonaro. Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in São Paulo, said some voters have grown weary of Lula, who is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term.
"Many in the Lula campaign were not expecting such a difficult election a few weeks ago, and it is clear to them that the present election is a tough battle and the next ones, without Lula, could be even more so," Melo said.
Down-ballot races and a polarized electorate
Beyond the presidency, Brazilians will elect 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 federal congressmen and 54 of the country's 81 senators. Nearly 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote, and ten other presidential candidates are expected to receive much smaller shares of the vote.
Thomas Traumann, a political consultant based in Rio de Janeiro, described the race as a contest defined more by accusations than proposals. "Polarization in Brazil created a trap. There's no third candidate. You only have two options, and they fight each other in an atmosphere that becomes worse and worse," he said. "It is much more a competition of accusations than a competition of proposals."
Right-wing candidates have gained ground in Latin America in recent months, including in Argentina, Colombia and Peru. Lula, who has strengthened Brazil's ties with Beijing, is running in his seventh presidential election.
What happens next
Voting takes place Sunday. If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes, the top two finishers will meet again on October 25. Both camps are projecting confidence, but the final answer will come from an electorate that polls suggest remains deeply divided.