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| U.S. JOLTS report highlights job openings and labor market trends. |
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the August 2026 JOLTS report at 10:00 a.m. ET on September 29, a closely watched gauge of labor demand for the Federal Reserve and a barometer for investors.
July's Numbers
BLS data showed only a modest increase in job openings to 7.3 million, compared to 7.3 million the previous month, with hires and total separations both coming in at 5.1 M. This follows on the heels of the last month's robust employment report of 162 K nonfarm payrolls and a stable 4.1% unemployment rate.
Analysts characterize it as a continuation of the "low-hire, low-fire" labor market tightness, with moderate 3.1% YoY wage growth and little sign of layoffs.
The Forecast for August
The labor data firm LinkUp anticipates job openings for the month to come in at 7.18 M, down 1.17% MoM, and more forecasters than not are penciling in a number closer to the 7.0-7.0 M range due to softer small business hiring expectations.
It's a mixed bag out there, with durable manufacturing equipment and healthcare sectors swinging wildly at the same time as the Fed has seen consistent though uninspiring private sector demand, and the market is pricing in a wide range of 7.0-7.6 million openings for the report on the 29 th.
Significance
The JOLTS data allows the Fed to determine if the labor market is indeed cooling, as it has suggested several times in recent months, or merely returning to pre-pandemic norms, which would have different implications for monetary policy. A weaker than expected number would support arguments for rate cuts, while a strong number would justify a pause.
Note: This report has not yet been released - the numbers above are a forecast and estimate. I can update this when the report is released on the 29 st of September.
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