Kurdish leaders say a newly merged Peshmerga is ready, but analysts question whether the unity will hold and what the exit of US air defenses means for Erbil.
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| Kurdish Peshmerga fighters stand on a mountain ridge in Iraq's Kurdistan region. (AI-generated illustration) |
Iraq's Kurdish forces, known as the Peshmerga, are facing their first period without a US-led coalition presence in years. The United States announced Wednesday that Operation Inherent Resolve, its 12-year campaign against ISIL (ISIS), had formally ended and that its military withdrawal from Iraq was complete.
Other coalition partners also left the country. The departures followed a September 30 deadline that Washington and Baghdad agreed on two years earlier.
For years, the Peshmerga relied heavily on coalition support, particularly from the US, to protect the autonomy of Iraq's Kurdistan region and to defend against ISIL. The withdrawal now raises political and security questions for both Erbil and Baghdad.
A unified force, with questions about how long it lasts
On September 21, days before the coalition left, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) announced that it had brought the region's separate armed factions into one fighting force. The KRG is based in Erbil and governs Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region.
KRG President Nechirvan Barzani said at the ceremony that the militias tied to the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) now sit under a single structure. The two parties are the dominant Kurdish factions in Iraq. "Kurdistan needs one force, one ministry, and one command," he said, adding that the Peshmerga must be a national force free from party interference.
Barzani also cautioned that the next phase may prove even harder than earlier Kurdish struggles, because the Peshmerga will have to place national duty above party loyalty.
Analysts echoed both the promise and the risk. Zeidon Alkinani, a Middle East political analyst and founding director of the Doha-based Arab Perspectives Institute, told Al Jazeera that the merger could help stabilize Iraq. In his view, the country's most damaging rivalries have been within communities rather than between them, and reducing party control over the Peshmerga could give Erbil firmer legal footing in dealings with Baghdad. He said the real test is whether the arrangement survives, since two geographically separate commands persist.
Retired Lt. Gen. Jabbar al-Yawar, a former secretary general of the KRG's Ministry of Peshmerga, noted that the two parties are locked in several political disputes, including over how Kurdistan is governed and how it deals with Baghdad. He told Al Jazeera those disagreements could spill into military institutions if the forces stay tied to the parties.
Peshmerga say they are ready
The Ministry of Peshmerga says its forces are prepared. Spokesperson Maj. Gen. Othman Mohammed told Al Jazeera the Peshmerga "has always been on full alert," and pointed to its role in pushing back ISIL in 2014 despite limited resources. He also described commanders from the Peshmerga and Iraq's other security forces as cooperating and coordinating well.
That coordination matters more now that the coalition's mission has ended and Iraqi forces must detect and stop ISIL activity on their own.
Still, some observers see unease among Kurds. Mohammed Salih, a non-resident senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in the US, said there is "considerable uncertainty and concern among Kurds surrounding the US withdrawal." Many are asking whether the troop departure signals an end to Washington's commitment to Kurdish security, he told Al Jazeera, noting that the US has been a key security guarantor for the region for about three decades.
A more immediate worry is air defense. The US took key air defense systems with it when it left, according to the report. That is a serious concern for Erbil, which has been hit by several drone and missile attacks since the start of the US war on Iran.
Erbil's relationship with Baghdad
Erbil has indicated it plans to keep working with Baghdad under Iraq's federal system. The day after the coalition's exit, KDP leader and former KRG President Masoud Barzani spoke of "very strong coordination" with the federal government to confront threats, whether they come under the name of ISIS or any other name.
While in Baghdad, he voiced support for federal efforts to fight corruption, disarm Iran-aligned militias, and resolve outstanding disputes with Erbil under the constitution.
The militia question has been a sore point. Washington had pressed Baghdad to disarm Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq, but the groups refused, citing the US military presence in the country while the US was at war with Iran. Alkinani said the withdrawal could remove that justification and help the cause of federalism, but only if Iraqis fill the gap with dialogue and law rather than force. Supporters of Iran-aligned factions held a rally in Baghdad on September 30 to celebrate the coalition's departure.